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The Bangladesh Defence Analyst Forum

Darth Nihilus

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Posts posted by Darth Nihilus

  1. On 4/18/2020 at 8:03 AM, CIWS said:

    While it is a great news that Bangladesh is expanding its missions worldwide, the same cannot be said for the presence of other countries in Bangladesh, unfortunately. In the last decade, Bangladesh has opened many embassies in different countries, but apart from Brazil, no new country has opened any resident mission in Dhaka. The number of missions in Dhaka has been stuck at 48 since at least a decade! Many countries where we have our embassies abroad, they don't have any mission in BD. For visa matters, Bangladeshis have to visit Delhi or send their documents by post etc. 

    Dhaka needs at least 10-15 new foreign missions. Countries such as Mexico, Argentina, New Zealand, Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Austria, Belgium, Poland, Portugal, Jordan, and Lebanon really need to consider opening resident missions in Dhaka.

    Although we do need other countries to open up missions in Bangladesh, the fact of the matter is that these countries don't have enough of it's citizens residing in Bangladesh for them to warrant opening missions here. Although it does a lot of benefit in terms of diplomatic relations, the presence of embassies are mainly to serve their own citizens in a foreign country. Frankly, there isn't a lot of citizens from those countries living in Bangladesh.

  2. I don't know if this is the right place to post this question but I can't think of anywhere else at the moment. Can someone tell me if Bangladesh maintains a black budget? From my understanding, all countries (or most) have black budgets (money allocated for undisclosed projects). Can someone clear this up? I don't want to know the amount but I just wanna know if they do actually maintain one or not.

  3. On 3/4/2020 at 7:07 PM, Syed Amar Khan said:

    There is no international law that says forests and jungles cannot exist within 150 yards of the no man's land. I don't know where these people get such references. If they illegally clear forests and jungles it will cause ecological damage and the fact that several endangered species reside in the border areas of the two countries this is a very serious threat. Bangladesh and India are bound to protect the eco-system. The governments of the two countries should not do anything that is against the long term interests of the country. Human encroachment is the problem and not the forests themselves. 

    This feels like a misstep by the authorities, instead of clearing out forests and vegetation from that area they should've cleared out the people living in those areas. Sort of like having a habitation free zone before the actual border. Will save a lot of trouble in the long run.

  4. The whole fiasco of the YAKs were that the AF planners put too much hope into the Russian deal. So much so that they made the tender specifically for the Russians giving them an insane amount of leverage to ask for whatever price they wanted. They also put so much faith into this deal that they bought Russian specific AJTs. Not gonna debate on the price as the exact amount might never be disclosed. Keeping all that aside, now that we are going towards EFTs, it makes sense that we cover up our losses somehow and employ these YAKs as a complimentary trainer as well as a LAC. Who knows, if the MMRCA deal goes to the Russians (Su-30/35) then the YAKs won't be a waste at all at that point. But, I will give you that the procurement of the YAKs were a waste NOT when they were bought but because of the events that happened after.

  5. 17 hours ago, TigerShark said:

    According to BSFs assessment the BGB needs a manpower of 140,000 to secure Bangladesh's borders. There are half that amount now!!

    Even if all that manpower is acquired, they need to act responsibly and not endorse bribery and ferrying of drugs across the border. Regardless of reports, it's apparent that without the help of the BGB, this much drugs and other stuff won't come through the border. More technology will help decrease the gap in manpower the BGB has.

  6. 17 hours ago, Legionair said:

    Well , Im not a Trump fan but Trump is a show man for many years, he can easily turn things around. You can hope Sanders to win but its better to watch what Trump does next. His popularity is rising -because he is data driven from last election. His target group is absolutely precise. Cambridge Analytica did an excellent job for the US republican, UK conservatives and Brexit election. The data was recent and the psycoprofile they did is still valid.

    Let's not go into the election debacle that happened. As you can see, the US hasn't even figured out what happened as of yet. But the more important point is as hard as it is to admit, Trump needs to stay. He really is decisive (not a fan of most of his decisions) but he actually does what he thinks is good for the US. Sanders will never be able to close the bases down as Congress won't allow it and if nothing changes, will still have a majority of the opposition in power there. As long as that happens, no bases will be shutdown. Let me remind you that Obama wasn't able to close down GitMo or pull troops from Afghanistan fully the two terms he was in power.

  7. The issue with BAF is very simple. They change their minds in the turn of a dime. Not always their fault as we didn't comprehend that Russia would charge so much for Su-30s and Su-35s. The US has it's own complex mechanism so having US fighters wasn't on the tables then. That's all fine so far as that is not in our hands.But someone explain to me the need of YAK-130s. Wasn't it meant to be a trainer/LAC for our AF given that we were gunning for Russian MRCAs then? Now we are going for EFTs and by the looks of it, it is pretty damn certain at this point. Won't we need another model of trainers for these or are we gonna still use YAKs? Other than that, what wrong has BAF done in the last 3 years? They bought radars, they bought transport aircraft, MRO plants, BAC and so on and so forth. So where else is their mistake.

    All I can see is that they haven't bought anything for a long time which is why we are so behind and now that they're gearing up to push forward and hasten their progress, they're still getting flak from us. Why is that?

  8. Didn't know exactly what to quote from the post above because it seems comprehensive enough. Don't forget Bangladesh has a foreign reserve of 33B. In case of emergencies, that can always be used to bring an insane amount of fighters to the arsenal. The only issue is with trained pilots and I feel Bangladesh does have a decent batch that can operate the upcoming MRCAs and MMRCAs. This also makes sense given the timing of these and I'm pretty sure EFT capable pilots were being trained from Esrar's time. Once the MRCA issue is knocked out of the park, pretty sure we shall be hearing about the MMRCA deal near the end of the year as the BoB is a very strategically important area for us.

  9. I fail to understand why the heck BGB doesn't employ a bigger force along the border we have with Myanmar. Sure, a lot of the land is inaccessible but we could employ the help of technology to have a better presence along that part of the border. Not only does that help curb aggression from the other side but also should help solve a lot of the drug trade crisis going on over there.

  10. 23 hours ago, Alim said:

    We can counter them within 5 years but this will take a complete overhaul of BAF's mindset and attitude. 

    It is not impossible. The way forward is to equip BAF with technology that Burma cannot access. I am suggesting a fleet fully integrated into the Western ecosysyem.

    A fully electronically integrated fleet of Eurofighters/Super Hornets/Gripens armed with MBDA products and Western backing can eviscerate Burma and alter the course of South East Asian politics forever.

    What BAF need to do is buddy up with BA and BN to present a coordinated case for achieving decisive and qualitative superiority over Burma to the government.

    Couldn't agree with this more and from the looks of it, it seems like we are on that track. Sadly, wouldn't be able to kick out China just yet but we have started to warm up to our Western friends (US, UK, Italy and whatnot, not our neighbors). I feel not only this year but the next 3 years at least would be the AF's year. Please don't forget to be grateful towards our ex-CAS Esrar and the current one. 

  11. 3 hours ago, Dark Carnage said:

    Hey, we are talking about next years budget, not next 10 or 15 years budget.

    From the looks of it, since the President has already made the announcement for the hardware, either the money has been secured for it or it has already been signed and the money for it has already been locked away. Sure, wording is a touchy subject here as no one has definitively said anything about it being concluded so you can imagine that the money has already been allocated for it worst case scenario. As our fiscal year starts from June and the announcement has been made before June, you can rest assured the money is from the previous budget for the AF (not the one officially declared last year don't get me wrong). As for the defense budget, won't increase significantly as we have a lot of development projects in the pipeline and majority money would be going towards there. Don't worry about anything else as Bangladesh seems to be in the right track with the way she is handling her business given the circumstances.

  12. 2 hours ago, sibghat_99 said:

    The BD shipbreaking industry gives off the vibe that it is some sort of necessary evil since it is the main source of steel for the country. But I feel like this should not be an excuse for the lack of concern by the policymakers over the safety of the workers there.

    There are ways to break ships and not destroy the environment and health of their workers and still have a decent profit margin. But these shipbreaking company owners are too thick in the head to even take those steps. All they care about is the short term profit and not the sustainability in the long term.

  13. On 2/5/2020 at 10:22 AM, Syed Amar Khan said:

     

    This is a textbook example of how Bangladeshi politics is detrimental to the country's development. Imagine they went ahead with the project 4 years ago, it would've been almost half done at this point and in the next 5 years would've become operational (given that there are no delays) the new airport itself would've eased more congestion in Dhaka than the Metrorail itself (people travelling from Banani-Gulshan-Dhanmondi to Uttara in the morning can testify to that). Pair that up with the new Padma bridge and you get one of the most efficient airport in Bangladesh history. With Biman's extended fleet, we'd be flying to more destinations directly than we could ever imagine.

  14. 1 minute ago, Dark Carnage said:

    But they are already behind.

     

    When the total transmission capacity  is 13GW, how will they sustain the higher consumption than that.

     

    Yes, the 19GW is the total generation capacity where the maximum production so far is around 12.5GW. And the main reason we do not produce more is we do not have the capacity to take that much electricity to the consumers. But demand is there. The only reason villages are still suffering from load-shedding is the poor condition of distribution network.       

    I'm sure you know about the state of the power distribution board. eventually they are gonna reach everyone, it is just going to take time. 

  15.  

    3 minutes ago, Syed Amar Khan said:

    Are you trying to suggest BD Army is wasting its resources?

    To save from further confusion there is a wide gulf of difference between Cobra and Cobra II (follow up on it via Google search). MaxxPro Dash are purpose built MRAPs and will be used as MRAPs for mechanised infantry (the regular, and not some imagined special unit).

     

    Oh no definitely not wasting resources. Army has been buying quality stuff and there's no argument to that. The quantities were what confused me. I meant Cobra IIs when I said Cobras. I just wanted to know which divisions will be using it and if there's an inherent difference in their abilities that's all. Thanks for clearing that out.

  16. 2 minutes ago, Salted Cola said:

    Pakistan can be an ally no doubt, I actually want Bangladesh to take a softer approach to Pakistan and Imran khan is the guy we needed in Islamabad. He's got the Indians under pressure. Bangladesh can't keep India in check by itself and our economic clout can only take us so far, we need a friend whose nearby, it's even better that friend has the same enemy as us; Akhand Bharat.

     

    Regardless of what clueless Yahoos say India under BJP is the greatest threat to Bangali way of life since 71.

    Glad I found someone who has the same viewpoint. I was worried I'll be called a Rajakar for even mentioning that Bangladesh should have a better relation with Pakistan. Seeing the way Imran Khan is going, this is prime time for us to put aside some differences as it seems he might be coming back for another term as of now and we need to make the most of it.

  17. 8 minutes ago, Syed Amar Khan said:
    • Primary trainer: Hurkus-B - BAF officials have not visited any other countries for primary trainers from what I know.
    • Light transport aircraft: Let L410NG - Follow on order for more advanced version reportedly outfitted in VVIP profile.
    • MRAP with jammers: Cobra II - Its a follow on order with eventual requirement for 800+ units of Cobra LAV.

    From the quantities, it seems like Cobras are gonna be more generally deployed MRAPs and the MaxxPro ones are gonna be for special units? Please forgive me if this was answered before but I'm a bit confused.

  18. On 2/1/2020 at 8:26 PM, Syed Amar Khan said:

    A nascent market in healthcare sector

    MEDICAL EQUIPMENT
    FAISAL MAHMUD, Dhaka
    Bangladesh has a medical equipment market worth of $163 million, similar in size to the market in Latvia or Serbia. But market size is where the similarity ends, as Bangladesh’s per capita health expenditure stands at only $27, whereas in Latvia or Serbia, it is $860 and $810 respectively.

    This low per capital health expenditure has proven to be a major barrier in creating a medical equipment industry in the country, making the sector almost exclusively import-oriented, say experts.

    According to a recent report of the Espicom Business Intelligence, an UK-based pharmaceutical and medical equipment research firm, the Bangladeshi medical equipment market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4 per cent, which will advance it to a total value of $243.6 million by 2018.

    The Espiocom report also said that Bangladeshi medical device imports have shown wild fluctuations in recent years, with growth in US dollar terms ranging from a high of 79.5 per cent in 2005 to a low of -10.6 per cent in 2007.

    In 2013, imports increased by 25.4 per cent to reach $156 million. The recent annual import total reached a record high of $176.9 million in the 12 months to December 2014, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.4 per cent, said the Espiocom report.

    In the absence of any significant medical equipment industry, export totals tend to be very small. In 2013, exports were valued at $3.7 million. Consequently, Bangladesh runs a negative balance of trade in medical devices—in excess of $150 million in 2013.

    According to the data of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), the recent annual export total amounted to $ 5.6mn in the 12 months to December 2014, representing year-on-year growth of 51.6 per cent.

    Very little domestic manufacturing takes place in Bangladesh and what does almost entirely comprises basic medical supplies. The Espiocom report said that a total of 104 people were employed in eight establishments involved in the manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies in Bangladesh in 2012. Gross output by the eight establishments totalled $2.6 million.

    “The situation is changing slowly. We have been able to expand the domestic manufacturing market in the last few years,” said Sayed Rezaul Karim, managing director of National Electrocare Ltd, one of the few pioneers medical equipment manufacturers in the country.

    Karim, an electrical engineer who founded the company in 2005, said he now had patents for eleven products including three types of Electro Ultrasound Therapy machines, Digital Muscle Stimulator machine, three types of Electro Surgical Units, two types of Waxbath machines, Photo Electric Colorimeter and Digital Lab Rotator.

    “I was involved in the maintenance of large medical equipment for some of the renowned hospitals. I learned the details of some of the small and medium-size machines out of my own interest. Then I thought of manufacturing them myself,” said Engr Karim.

    Karim says now he supplies his company’s machines to Popular, Labaid, Ibn Sina, Islami Bank Hospital and several other clients. He has also started exporting some of the machines to India.

    “For producing large medical equipment like Electrocardiographs, Magnetic Resonance Imaging devices, Scintigraphic devices, Ultrasonic Scanners, X-ray machine and others, there is still no option but to go for imports as producing them involves large facilities with hi-tech knowledge”.

    He says it is hard to establish in Bangladesh with a per capita health expenditure of $27 dollar. “But we can focus on manufacturing small and medium medical equipment,” said Karim.

    Md Shah Alam, owner of BD-Ortho Care, another pioneer that manufacturers all sorts of Orthopedic Implants and Instruments, told The Independent that there was a huge potential of manufacturing small medical equipment in Bangladesh.

    “After being involved in importing medical equipment for over 17 years, I started this manufacturing company only three years ago. I am now exporting products worth around $0.6 million,” said Alam.

    Alam said that his company was producing 60 orthopedic products including bone-hook, drill machine, spine retractor, jime and many more. “The price of those products ranges from Tk 300–Tk 30,000. I am supplying these products to Apollo Hospital, Trauma Centre, National Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedic Surgery. I am also exporting these products to Pakistan and Thailand.”

    Alam said the small and medium-size medical equipment market has been flooded with a large number of substandard medical instruments imported mainly from India, Pakistan and China, as the traders are capitalising on the absence of a market monitoring system.

    “The products that we produce are a way better than the products that are being imported from those countries. But a syndicate of some traders hinder the growth of the domestic market,” said Alam.

    Mahbubul Haque, managing director of Panacea Biomedical Services, said instead of importing substandard products from abroad, Bangladesh could easily go for manufacturing, especially the surgical equipment and small products for diagnostic centres.

    Haque’s company, which imports products like test tubes, butterfly needles and injections from China said that they planned to manufacture these products in the near future. “This market is growing day by day. The country has the potential to meet the increasing demand through manufacturing. Otherwise, it will remain import-oriented,” said MD of Panacea.

    Prof Mohammaed Kamal, chairman of the department of pathology at the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), said the per capita healthcare expenditure was increasing in Bangladesh.

    “Just a few years ago, it was below $10, now it is $27. The market is growing and we have the scope to increase our local products. The products that are manufactured here are of good quality; so we can also grab the export market,” said Prof Kamal.

    Amid rising global trade tensions and sluggish global economic outlook for 2020, the global healthcare market is expected to cross the $2 trillion mark in 2020, according to ‘Global Healthcare Market Outlook, 2020’ report.

    The new vision for healthcare for 2020 and beyond will not just focus on access, quality, and affordability but also on predictive, preventive, and outcome-based care models promoting social and financial inclusion. Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) will emerge has a big theme across progressive health systems to proactively engage the right patients and improve health outcomes to help healthcare organisations meet quality standards, it said.

    In 2020, consumer-driven models of healthcare will gain more market traction, as they stand to better bridge the gap of what consumers want and what healthcare can deliver, the report added.

    How would you expect a growth in this market? Bangladeshis flock to India or Singapore whenever they come across anything that they think won't be solved in Bangladesh. The state of the public hospitals are horrendous, while private hospitals charge exorbitant rates. This industry should be looked into more as we have a growing middleclass and they are the ones availing the services of the private hospitals.

  19. 6 hours ago, Dark Carnage said:

    Instead of investing so much in power generation, I think its time we start investing in power transmission and distribution sector. Currently, Bangladesh has a total generation capacity of around 19GW while our distribution capacity is around 13GW. So, I think investing more in power generation now is unnecessary now.

    As far as reports say, power transmission projects are going side by side with power generation projects. It takes time to build powerplants and comparatively no time to build transmission lines. The gap needs to be there to account for especially higher rates of power consumption (ex: summertime compared to winter). Safe to say the numbers are for estimating total capacity and not that Bangladesh churns out that many watts everyday.

  20. On 2/1/2020 at 2:12 AM, Salted Cola said:

    I know all about it, I live with Pakistanis (not toxic ones) and I deal with their excuses everyday. 

    About the cement consumption, that is only because they have a higher population than us and a larger landmass that needs more infrastructure and the Pakistani government is expert in building massive roads that go nowhere.

    CPEC is a leash that China is tying around their neck, it won't make them even the 25th largest economy by 2040, it'll make them China's favourite pet. CPEC = Coronavirus Pakistan Export Corridor

     

    Bro I think you're forgetting that they use cement as a side dish to all the radioactive grass they consume. Their egos aside, I think Pakistan can be a good ally in terms of just countering India. Bring back the assumption that India needs to keep their eyes on BOTH the Eastern and the Western borders. Other than that, Pakistan has nothing to offer Bangladesh.

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