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As Egypt’s population hits 100 million, celebration is muted

Published: 13 Feb 2020 01:58 AM BdST Updated: 13 Feb 2020 01:58 AM BdST

The birth of that citizen — whom officials identified as a girl named Yasmine Rabie, in a village in Minya governorate — was noted in Cairo by a giant counter outside the country’s national statistics agency that has been ticking upward for years.

Hitting 100,000,000 marked human plenty, certainly, but also an uneasy moment in a country gripped by worries that its exploding population will exacerbate poverty and unemployment, and contribute to the scarcity of basic resources like land and water.

Egypt’s cabinet said last week that it was on “high alert” to fight population growth, which President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has described as a threat to national security on par with terrorism. If unchecked, the population could reach 128 million by 2030, officials say.

El-Sissi tried to push back the tide with a public health campaign called “Two Is Enough” to persuade parents to have fewer children. Like many such efforts, it failed.

Fertility rates have risen since 2008, to 3.5 children per woman, according to the United Nations, and the population is growing 1.8% annually — a rate that, in Egypt’s crowded cities and towns, adds 1 million citizens every six months.

“The kids are coming thick and fast,” said David Sims, a lecturer at the American University in Cairo and author of “Understanding Cairo: The Logic of a City Out of Control.” “What the hell are they going to do?”

Egypt’s population crisis is amplified by its unforgiving geography: 95% of the population lives on about 4% of the land, a green belt roughly half the size of Ireland that follows the Nile as it snakes through the desert then fans out into the lush Nile Delta.

The construction of a huge new dam on the Nile in Ethiopia, due to start filling this summer, has focused the public’s fears about the existing strains on the river, largely from population growth.

Fertility rates are highest in rural areas, where a large family is considered a blessing. But their effect is felt most keenly in greater Cairo, where a sprawling megalopolis of about 20 million inhabitants is spilling into the surrounding desert and farmland.

Seen from roof height, the city looms as a vista of flat concrete roofs dotted with millions of satellite dishes. Even at the pyramids of Giza, houses, hotels and golf courses push in from three sides, leaving tourists with just one direction for photographs with a sand-filled backdrop.

On Monday night, Ahmed Abdel-Hadi, a taxi driver for the past 22 years, threaded his battered sedan through a river of traffic in Nasr City, a middle-class neighbourhood. A cacophony of blaring horns filled the air. An ambulance inched past, its lights flashing.

Fistfights between irate drivers have been growing more frequent as traffic has worsened, Abdel-Hadi noted — a problem that peaks during the holy season of Ramadan, when Egyptians rush to break their fast at sunset.

But Abdel-Hadi is also part of the problem. A father of four children, ages 10 to 19, he scoffed at the mention of government campaigns urging him to restrict his family.

“Human capital is valuable,” he declared. “A man’s family is a reflection of his income, and that’s what should determine how many children I have, not someone trying to dictate to me.”

Suzanne Mubarak, wife of former President Hosni Mubarak, spearheaded a push during her husband’s rule to reduce fertility rates. It was partly successful: During the 1990s and 2000s, rates fell to 3.0 from 5.2, according to government figures.

But the rate rose again around the time of the Arab Spring in 2011, for reasons that are not entirely clear, but probably stem from economic disruption, government turmoil and a drop in birth control funding from Western governments.

Under el-Sissi, the government has dispatched thousands of family planning advocates into rural areas and offered cheap contraceptives — as little as 6 cents for a packet of three condoms in a government store and 12 cents for an intrauterine device.

The country’s leading Islamic authority, Al Azhar, has endorsed the government plans and stressed that family planning is not forbidden by God.

But critics say the government mostly talks a good game on population control and that its actions have not matched its slogans. El-Sissi’s wife has not been a visible force on family planning, while his officials have tried to dent the problem with public health programs.

“Overpopulation is eating everything,” said Dr Amr A Nadim, an obstetrician-gynaecologist at Ain Ain Shams University. “But I don’t feel the government is working all that hard on it.”

He listed the issues: an erratic supply of contraceptives of variable quality; poor medical training; U.S. government funding that dried up; and no longer obliging new doctors to take family planning courses.

The population crush also affects him personally. “Sometimes I’m called to a pregnant woman in an emergency, but I can’t reach her because of the traffic,” he said.

“The problem,” he added, “is that we don’t have a real strategy to combat it.”

Other large developing countries with soaring populations have managed to get the problem under control. Vietnam, where the population grew to 97 million in 2018 from 60 million in 1986, has reduced the rate of increase to 1%. Bangladesh, which has a population of more than 160 million, has done the same.

In Egypt, though, the rate of growth is nearly twice as high, at 1.79% in 2018-19. More than 700,000 young Egyptians enter the job market every year, said Aleksandar Bodiroza, representative of the United Nations Population Fund in Egypt. “That’s a daunting task for any government,” he said.

Housing them is equally challenging. El-Sissi has made much of the array of high-profile megaprojects his government is building, like a new summer capital on the north coast and a new administrative capital outside Cairo. But few Egyptians can afford to live in the fancy new developments.

Rather, most people are cramming into the informal settlements that are continually sprouting on the edge of Cairo and other cities, where villages are being transformed into dormitory towns and farmland is being swallowed by uncontrolled development.

Experts say the government has a dismal record in providing new housing for the poor. And the poverty rate is rising, hitting 32.5% last summer by the government’s own figures — up from 27.8% in 2015. The stubbornly high fertility rate may be a reflection of that economic failure, said Sims, the author. “Egypt is heading back to its rural roots,” he added. “If you’re a poor person, you’ll have more kids.”

The population milestone passed Tuesday was met with a shrug by many Egyptians, for whom the difficulties of life in a congested city that is bursting at the seams are nothing new.

Ahmed Alaa, 24, a marketing agent, said his desire to avoid congestion often shaped his days, and often that means simply staying home “It’s become so normalized, this congestion,” he said. “You can’t set an appointment to do anything. The traffic is just so crazy.”

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Russia reportedly begins SU-35 production for Egypt

Russian state media reported that the Gagarin Aircraft Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has launched the production of its advanced Su-35 fighter jets under a contract with Egypt.

Russia’s news agency, TASS, quoting military diplomatic source, reported that was launched the production of SU-35 fighters, intended to be delivered to the Egyptian Air Force under the contract signed in 2018

“The Gagarin Aircraft Plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has launched the production of Su-35, intended to be delivered to the Egyptian Air Force under the contract signed in 2018,” the source said.

“The timeframe for first batch’s delivery to the Egyptian side has not been set yet, due to restrictions imposed by the novel coronavirus outbreak,” he added.

Russia’s Kommersant daily reported in March 2019 that Egypt had decided to purchase several Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets for about $2 billion. The signing of the deal has never been confirmed by official sources.

China has become the first foreign country to buy Su-35 when it signed a $2.5-billion deal with Russia for 24 aircraft. The deal also envisaged supplies of ground equipment and spare engines. The delivery of the aircraft to China was completed in 2019.

The Su-35S is a heavily upgraded generation 4++ supermaneuverable multipurpose fighter jet developed on the basis of fifth-generation technologies. The Su-35S is distinguished by its new avionics suite based on the information control system, the new radar, plasma ignition engines of the increased capacity and thrust vectoring. These engines meet the requirements for the powerplant of fifth-generation fighters as they allow developing supersonic speed without using an afterburner.



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Italy reveals Leonardo helo sales to Egypt

The Italian government has revealed a hitherto-unconfirmed Leonardo military helicopter sale to Egypt, according to documents disclosed in late May.

According to the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Leonardo has sold 24 AW149 and eight AW189 helicopters to the Egyptian military for approximately EUR 871 million (USD957 million). The sales were recorded in the ministry’s 2019 arms exports report to the Italian Senate of the Republic.

The documents do not disclose any further information pertaining to production or delivery timelines, aircraft roles, or which branch of the Egyptian military will field them.

While the Italian government report provided no details as to the intended role of the helicopters within the Egyptian military, it did note that the AW149s would be configured with eight seats (it can normally carry up to 18 passengers), while the similarly-sized AW189s will be configured with the maximum 19 seats. These configurations suggest that the AW149s will perform a specialist military task that requires the fitting of bespoke mission equipment, while the AW189s will be used for general passenger transport.

Leonardo has not commented on the report nor the sales contained within it.

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