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The Bangladesh Defence Analyst Forum

Professor Chanakya

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Posts posted by Professor Chanakya

  1. On 1/29/2020 at 5:24 AM, Legionair said:

    I dont think there will be any major shift in policy and I would expect another Trump tenure in coming years so dont bother engaging your brain thinking Sanders has chance. The boost of defense budget by Trump is a good news for Bangladesh , not so a good news that 900 bases will be closed due to a new POTUS in power. 

    Also delighted to see we have a stronger ties now and it is preferable to have decommissioned ships from US then some Chinese ! might have Coronavirus on them who knows!  

     

    Actually I wasn't and you are right. I was replying to members who thought that Sanders might come and close bases and make 180 turn in US foreign policy.

  2. On 1/26/2020 at 1:43 PM, Salted Cola said:

    Didn't know there more Burmese Muslim groups besides the Rohingya. 

    The only solution for the rohingya is have them repatriated and given a strong foothold in the border regions. It helps to have allies on the other side of the border, no need to arm though.

     

    There's an indigenous Burmese Muslim group other than Rohingya. They don't speak the distant cousin of Chatgaiya dialect but pure Burmese.

     

    Best of luck getting Rohingyas into Burma and keeping them in without any protection.

  3. On 1/26/2020 at 1:54 PM, Salted Cola said:

    American presidents whoever they maybe are all slaves to lobbying groups and national interest. I never buy anything they say during the election campaign. 

    Exactly ! that is what I'm trying to say. Even Obama failed to do any such major policy reversals despite having more popularity and despite being more accepted than Sanders. 3 major promises: Geetting out of Iraq and Afghanistan and closing Guantanamo has not materialized so far !

  4. 2 minutes ago, Alim said:

    I am afraid you are not very familiar with Sanders' track record.

    Besides, those bases do not serve "American interests" but corporate interests. If elected, and the odds are high as per polling data, he will be the first POTUS in modern history to not be beholden to corporate interests as he takes no money from them. I suggest reading up on him.

    You're making assumptions as to whether I know or not. I teach these issues to people. Anyways I've not taken offense to your statement. It doesn't matter what Sanders says. He will have his hands tied when dealing with this issue. Congress and Senate won't allow him to do a lot of things that he might want to do. There isn't much support for such policies from any major segment of Democratic or Republican Party. American system functions in such a way that Sanders being completely clean from corporate interest won't be able to make major change. He might close 1-2 bases but no major change will come. Trust me. All these bases serve American interest and as such America can't give away its valuable possessions.

  5. 5 minutes ago, Salted Cola said:

    One could argue the Pakistanis got themselves into the mess knowingly. Indians seem to think ISI empowers terror groups, maybe they do. Maybe they did and it back fired. 

    In any case, the current situation in Pakistan is getting better which is good for the region as a whole.

    Terror in Pakistan is complex issue so I will refrain from making my judgments. All intel organizations at any point of time or another empower or have empowered outfits that has been called as terror outfits by some country or another.

     

    Its premature to judge whether it is good for the region. If Pakistan learned something then one could consider a successful learning curve finished by them. So far behavior change has not materialized.

  6. 6 minutes ago, Salted Cola said:

    For strategic reasons we ought to help the secessionists groups in Myanmar, discreetly of course. Remember the Burmese helped the CHT rebels during the 90s.

    Myanmar as a country is doomed to fail because of multiple ethnicities and tribes or whatever they are.

    Once Myanmar is out of the equation, BD can finally ease out a bit and start fencing the border with India. 

    It's already happening and it'll only start getting worse, Indians jumping the border to get into Bangladesh to benefit from the economic boom.

    I'm all for helping Burmese groups as long as they not Muslim. Radicalization of Muslims will have a spill over into Bangladesh that we should strictly avoid. Moreover, so called islamic terrorism game will emerge and things will get out of our control.

  7. 1 minute ago, Salted Cola said:

    Well to be fair, Bangladesh hasn't faced the kind of large scale terror attacks that Pakistan and India have faced which is a good thing.

    The 2008 Mumbai attacks shook India to its core.

    The government did a commendable job of crushing terror networks in BD largely hampering their capabilities to mount attacks.

    That is exactly the reason Pakistani and Indian forces should have been better at dealing with this situation ! Despite decades of engagement and experience they failed to respond adequately.

  8. 17 hours ago, AntiDalal said:

    Any ideas about the actual combat capabilities of the Myanmar armed forces beyond their own borders? Surely the regime must know that they can't wage all out war against Bangladesh.

    It will cripple their already limping economy, create a power vacuum for the secessionists to exploit, damage their inexistent international reputation. 

    Lastly, do they even have the manpower pool to carryout a long term war? Seeing as Bangladesh has 160M+ population, our manpower pool must looms large over them. Our ethnic homogeneity and intense love for the motherland's hard fought sovereignty will surely be something the genocidal regime will have to think about before trying anything.

    If non Muslim Burmese ethnic minorities can be used by our intelligence agencies to keep Burma busy then why should we have to engage in war ourselves?

     

    I'm not saying we are doing it but we've a large potential to do so.

  9. 13 hours ago, Salted Cola said:

    Do Bangladeshi special forces get training from SSG? After the holey artisan incident I think we must have a well trained force ready to counter just terror attacks. 

    SSG is probably the best in the region, Indian NSG dont have much combat experience as SSG.

    Holey Artisan, the previous Sylhet issue and subsequent operations have highlighted the quality of BD special forces. Neither India nor Pkaistan with all their elite forces have been able to conduct operations with such elegance and sophistication as we did. In my view given the wide ranging tribute and respect paid to Bangladeshi special forces by regional commanders for their successful completion of missions, Bangladeshi special forces are probably the best. Both Indian and Pakistani forces failed to conduct missions with the rate that our forces have done.

  10. 5 hours ago, Alim said:

    Fantastic purchases no doubt but they have "underperformed" ( and I take no pleasure in saying this) where it matters - procuring fighter jets.

    The govt regimes in charge since 2007 have been highly supportive of military procurement and BA and BN have made full use of the support as their transformation in fighting capabilities has been phenomenal.

    BAF on the other hand has lost edge due to retirement of many experienced pilots and lack of exposure to modern fighters for decades while the world has advanced fast.

    We need to introduce fighter jets in large numbers ASAP to control the damage and the US can help us with that.

    One way forward for BAF to upskill pilots is to intially procure a disproportionately large number of dual seat OCUs to train up pilots on the go.

    No amount of AJT hours can replicate OCU hours.

    The issue was the 2008 maritime standoff between Bangladesh and Myanmar that led to government paying more attention to military.

     

    We can't go too fast in this regard. AF needs well trained pilots and also that we will be getting OCU (Operational Conversion Units) with the delivery of fighters. Moreover, development of doctrine and tactics will only be possible once we get the fighters. Remember, we still lack a comprehensive BVR doctrine. If we get access to meteor then our doctrine will change from current one that is based on Russian and Chinese. I expect 2031-35 period to be the effective period for the conclusion of very sophisticated tactics and doctrine.

  11. 5 hours ago, Alim said:

    Biden is running on default support from low information, older voters which is eroding fast as people are starting to pay attention.

    Bernie is leading the opening cacuses in Iowa and New Hampshire and also in California which has the highest number of delgates. He is the only candidate with honest proposals and a proven track record. His support will snowball from the early cacuses.

    Anyway, on topic: Sanders will roll back troops from around the world and shut most of the 900 US bases.

    That's a lot of hardware up for grabs.

    BAF has a great opportunity to undo the damage it has inflicted upon itself in the last couple of decades.

    Very Unlikely.Despite the public statements Bernie will do no such thing. He will consider American interest first. 

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