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The Bangladesh Defence Analyst Forum

Dark Carnage

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Posts posted by Dark Carnage

  1. 10 minutes ago, Alim said:

    It is because BN are forward-thinking and quick on their feet in terms of decision-making.

    Giving them maritime strike aircraft would allow them to readily protect their rapidly expanding fleet without being held hostage by BAF's indecision and inefficiency.

     

    Navy would never get better aircraft or get any aircraft faster than AF. See the example of attack helicopter between AF and army. And I still think navy is not ready to operate any fighter aircraft.

  2. 59 minutes ago, Zoro96 said:

    Equipment! Equipment! Even more Equipment!

    Starting with the obvious, at least one squadron of MRCA for BAF, including all related weapons and maintenance facilities for the jets. Also in country training facilities for the pilots. Plan for induction of aerial refeulers and AWACS and a solid timetable.

    If we can get 32+ used, but upgraded, EF Typhoon from Germany, UK or Italian current stocks as they retire, we would be practically set for twin engine MRCA. Heck, if we can get 40 EFT's, we could give 32 to BAF and the rest, upgraded to handle attacking surface ships, to BN for their maritime MRCA requirement.

    Hopefully BN's locally built frigate program finally lifts off. Some sort of plan to induct at least two, if not four more, modern subs. Hopefully all the subs and the various ships training, maintenance and repair facilities will be built in country too. I don't know if we currently have the facilities to be able to overhaul or repair our Mings in country. We need larger and longer range/endurance replenishment ships; 15K to 25K tons should be good for now.

    As for the BA, they should get ToT and start building T-300 systems, also spares and ammo, locally at BoF under license; or just go for the Chinese WS-2B's with ToT. T-300 are license built copies of the Chinese WS-2 GMLRS systems anyway. They should also hurry up with the selection of the 300+ KM GMLRS system.

    As for all forces or the country as a whole, a solid plan in place to induct medium/long range SAM systems, within a short time frame, say 6-12 months. Maybe plan to start developing or just get ToT for SRBM/MRBM with up to 1,500-2,500 KM range and very good CEP. We also need cruise missiles of at least 500 KM range, but optimally at least 1,500 KM range.

    In case someone wonders why the 1500, 2000 or 2500 KM range? We would need the BM's and CM's to cover most of our Western and Eastern enemies, so that they have virtually no safe space on their territory to operate from and against us.

    Finally, we should get into the proper mindset that neither of our neighbors are our friends, not a single one. We are quite unfortunate that the only two countries that we have a physical border with, both are threats to us. So keeping this little reality in mind, all branches of the armed forces should strive to achieve as much long range/deep strike capability as possible.

    Hey, we are talking about next years budget, not next 10 or 15 years budget.

  3. 52 minutes ago, Zoro96 said:

    and the rest, upgraded to handle attacking surface ships, to BN for their maritime MRCA requirement.

    I don't understand why people are so eger to give fighter jets to navy. It is one thing to run some choppers and trasnport aircraft but running fighter jet is another ball game. Heck, few years back our AF didnot have enough pilots to run 4++ generation aircraft and they want to give fighters to the naval aviation which is not even 10 years old.

  4. Days before Trump’s visit, India finalises USD 3.5 billion defence deals with US: Report

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    Days before US President Donald Trump’s visit to India, New Delhi has finalised a USD 3.5 billion dollar for 30 heavy-duty armed helicopter with Washington.

    According to a Times of India report, the Cabinet Committer on Security (CCS) will clear the USD 2.6 billion deal for 24 MH-60 ‘Romeo’ multi-mission helicopters for the Navy and USD 930 million for six AH-64E Apache attack chopper for the Army by next week.

    “India will pay an initial 15 per cent instalment for the MH-60R helicopters under the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) government-to-government deal. Once the contract is inked, the first lost of the choppers will be delivered in two years. All 24 will come in four to five years,” sources, quoted by Times of India, said.

    “The Army should get the deliveries of the six choppers, armed with Stinger air-to-air missiles, Hellfire Longbow air-to-ground missiles, guns and rockets, around 2022-2023,” the sources further said.  

    This comes days before US President Donald trump’s visit to India. Trump is slated to travel to India on February 24 and 26. According to reports, Trump will push for the case for a US fighter -- F/A-18, F-15EX or the F-21 to be selected for the mega ‘Make in India’ project to produce 114 fighter jets for the Indian Air Force for around USD 20 billion.

    Earlier, India had inducted eight US-made Apache stealth attack helicopters into the IAF, significantly boosting the force's firepower capability at a time when the country faces complex security challenges including cross border terrorism.

    The eight helicopters, manufactured by aerospace major Boeing, were part of a multi-billion dollar deal India struck with the US for 22 Apache AH-64E choppers nearly four years ago.

    The AH-64E Apache is one of the world's most advanced multi-role combat helicopters and is flown by the US Army. The choppers are customised to suit IAF's future requirements.

    The Apaches also have a fully integrated digital cockpit which enhances its mission performance. It is uniquely suited for reconnaissance, security, peacekeeping operations, and lethal attack across myriad environments without reconfiguration.

  5. 28 minutes ago, Alim said:

    1. Reduces capacity to obtain favourable foreign loans due to inability to improve credit ratings

    Credit rating mostly depends on the ability to repay the loans. And our debt-gdp ratio is one of the lowest in the world.

    29 minutes ago, Alim said:

    2. Dries up bank funds available for the private sector. Businesses start going under which has a dom inno effect on the economy

    This is the most ominous thing currently happening to our economy.

  6. 1 minute ago, Alim said:

    Revenue growth is directly tied to economic growth.

    If there is less economic activity, people pay less taxes. Less tax > less revenue > potentially less allocation to defence procurement.

    But with govt expenditure through borrowed money economy an still flourish to some extent. And paying taxes has some relationship with good governance also. People can earn a lot and still pay not taxes.

  7. 21 minutes ago, Alim said:

    They are directly related as revenue growth is directly tied to economic activity.

    IMF and WB regularly question BBS's calculation but they do not have the resources to collect data and calculate from scratch for each of their members.

    They try to scale the economic growth using their own limited corrective modelling.

    You cannot fudge revenue stats though as money collected has to be paid out fot specific expenditures including defence purchases.

    We are talking about GDP growth here (8% increase), not the revenue growth. Revenue growth is not satisfactory. GDP is the total money circulating in the country. It does not help to increase the government fund directly unless revenue growth follows through. But, in BD GDP growth is riding mostly on government expenditure on infra projects and most of the times these sectors enjoy tax holiday. So, government fund (collected as tax, revenue etc) is not increasing as fast forcing govt to take more and more loans.

  8. 12 minutes ago, Alim said:

    government's revenue collection has taken a hit due a very recent slow down of private sector (don't be fooled by BBS's "8% growth" chest thumping).

    The revenue collection and growth rate has no relation (I am  not saying BBS is accurate or they do not exaggerate stats). And also the NBR data about the revenue collection is exaggerated too. In case of growth calculation, the IMF and WB data is also above 7% so the growth is not all lies.  

  9. Sluggish single-point mooring construction to eat more funds and time

    Construction progressed only 15 percent in four years

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    The single-point mooring construction in Moheshkhali, aiming at offloading imported petroleum products at reduced cost and time, has been moving at a slow pace with only 15 percent progress in four years.

    Initially, the project titled "Installation of Single-Point Mooring with Double Pipeline" began under the Energy and Mineral Resources Division in 2015 with a target to complete by 2018. But the project duration was extended by one year and the cost by over Tk490 crore.

    Now, the government body has again sent a proposal to the Planning Commission, seeking over Tk1,200 crore of further increase in the cost and a two-year extension in the project duration.

    The total increased spending will therefore be over Tk1,693 crore, which is about 34 percent of the initial Tk4,936 crore project allocation.

    On December 8 last year, the Project Implementation Committee (PEC) meeting asked the project implementing agency for the reason behind stagnation in the work. Planning Commission's Senior Secretary Shahin Ahmed Chowdhury presided over the meeting.

    The meeting also inquired into the reason for the cost escalation as well as recommended the agency – Eastern Refinery Limited – to revise the fresh proposal by rationalising the cost.

    Eastern Refinery told the PEC the work did not accelerate as the deal signed with China Petroleum Pipeline involved an amount of nearly Tk400 crore more than the allocation for construction. Besides, the loan agreement with China's Exim Bank took more time to get inked.

    Apart from that, the loan agreement with the Chinese bank was signed in December 2017 but it came into effect in April the next year. After that, only eight months were left to complete the project.

    According to the latest proposal, the China Petroleum Pipeline will construct the single-point mooring system within August 2021. The Energy and Mineral Resources Division has sought a grace period of four more months for the completion of the construction.

    The division said an increased spending due to changes in the dollar exchange rate, land acquisition and unavailability of tax rebates for the project, including registration, bank charge and licence fee, will push up the cost.

    According to the proposal, the exchange rate of US dollar was initially estimated at Tk78 but it is Tk84.90 now. If the present trend continues, the dollar exchange rate within the project time will grow to Tk86, to cause an extra spending of Tk422 crore in the form of agreement value, VAT and consultancy service.

    Also, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) was initially reckoned to grant tax rebates for the project, but the government exchequer did not respond positively to the energy division's call for it. As a result, the project would additionally need Tk553 crore to pay customs duty and VAT to the NBR, according to the fresh proposal.

    Besides, the land price, including compensation, in the original project was fixed at one-and-a-half times more than the real value, as per the 1982 law. But under the 2017 law, the land is costing three times more than the real rate, adding about Tk135 crore to the total spending.

    Planning Commission's Senior Secretary Shahin told The Business Standard that costs for several parts of the project have increased because of a sluggishness in the work. "But in the fresh proposal, the cost has increased unusually as the dollar exchange rate has been estimated at a price more than the market value.

    "Besides, the construction deal with the Chinese company has been signed for an extended period before increasing the duration for the project," she added.

    The senior official further said there is also a rule that binds government bodies responsible for project implementation to send a proposal for revision to the Planning Commission three months before the project duration ends. But the Energy and Mineral Resources Division did not follow it.

    When asked, Project Director Md Sharif Hasnat, the deputy general manager of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, declined to comment on the issue.

    Meanwhile, Dr Shah Mohammad Sanaul Haque, the joint secretary at the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, referred to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and the Eastern Refinery to seek comments.

    BPC Chairman Md Anisur Rahman did not respond to several phone calls and a text message from The Business Standard.

    According to the project proposal of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, Eastern Refinery at present can refine only 15 lakh tonnes of high-speed diesel against a demand of about 50 lakh tonnes.

    Due to infrastructural constraints in the Chattogram seaport as well as a low navigability in the Karnaphuli River, large oil tankers cannot come to the port. They have to anchor in the deep sea and smaller ships unload and bring the oil to storage facilities of the Eastern Refinery. It takes up to 11 days to offload oil from tankers.

    Bangladesh annually imports around six million tonnes of crude and refined oil combined, of which around 1.3 million tonnes are crude oil and the remaining are refined petroleum products.

    However, the entire process is expensive, risky and time-consuming. Under the present management, it will be difficult for the government to meet the growing need for fuel oil in the country.

    The single point mooring system, once constructed, will help to offload 1.2 lakh tonnes of crude oil within only 48 hours and 70,000 tonnes of diesel in 28 hours. Its annual capacity to offload oil will be nine million tonnes, and it will be able to save Tk800 crore per year.

    After the project completes, liquid fuel oil will be carried to Moheshkhali Island through the pipeline from large tankers anchored in the deep sea. Later, the 110-km pipelines installed under the Bay of Bengal and in coastal areas will directly carry the oil to the Eastern Refinery in Chattogram from Moheshkhali.

  10. 187.34 acres to be acquired for BD-India oil pipeline

    The government has taken a project for acquiring land and developing ancillary facilities to implement the Bangladesh-India Friendship Pipeline Project.

    Meghna Petroleum Limited under the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation will implement the project at a cost of Tk 306.2 crore by June 2022.

    Some 187.34 acres of land would be acquired under the project to lay 125 kilometer underground pipeline for importing fuel oil import from Numaligarh Refinery Limited in Shiliguri of India to Parbatipur Depot in Dinajpur.

    This was one of the nine projects approved by the executive committee of the National Economic Council at its meeting with prime minister Sheikh Hasina in the chair on Tuesday. 

    Planning Division secretary Nurul Amin at a briefing said the ECNEC sent back a project proposal for network expansion of state-owned Teletalk Bangladesh Ltd as the prime minister asked to conduct a feasibility study by a third party.

    Of the approved projects, five were new while the four others were revised projects, he said.

    The new projects are upgrading of Baneshwar -Sarda-Charghat-Bagha-Lalpur -Ishwardi highway at a cost of Tk 554.30 crore, protection of an embankments in Habiganj with Tk 573.48 crore, maintenance and reconstruction of eight industrial estates of Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corporation at Tk 74.25 crore, establishment of 50-bed kidney dialysis centre at a medical college and a 10-bed kidney dialysis centre at a General Hospitals at Tk 255.22 crore.

    The revised projects are widening and strengthening of Syedpur-Nilphamari Highway, 1st revised with an additional cost of Tk 217.08 crore, construction of multi-storey building of BSCIC at Tejgaon, 1st revised with an additional cost of Tk 30.35 crore, establishment of BSCIC plastic industrial estate, 1st revised with an additional cost of Tk 264.45 crore and further infrastructural development of Khulna University, 1st revised, with an additional cost of Tk 146.91 crore.

  11. Two more Indo-Bangla train routes in discussion

    Maitree, Bandhan to make more trips from next week

    Bangladesh Railway will start discussion with Indian Railways soon to assess whether two more passenger train routes can be opened between the countries, Railways Minister Nurul Islam Sujan said yesterday.

    One route would be Rajshahi-Kolkata via Rohonpur (Chapainawabganj) -Singabad (Malda) border and another Dhaka-Siliguri through Chilahati (Nilphamari)-Haldibari (Cooch Behar) border, he said.

    The minister was addressing a press conference at Rail Bhaban organised to announce that the BR was going to increase the number of trips of Maitree and Bandhan express trains running between Bangladesh and India from next week.

    On the Dhaka-Kolkata route, Maitree Express will run five days a week instead of four days from February 11 and Bandhan Express two days instead of one day on the Khulna-Kolkata route from February 16, he said.

    The minister added that the prime minister is expected to lay the foundation stone for the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Railway Bridge over the Jamuna river on March 14 as all necessary formalities had already been completed.

    NEW ROUTES

    Sujan said Rajshahi City Corporation mayor and several lawmakers from the district have long been demanding passenger train service between Rajshahi and Kolkata. “We have also talked to the Indian side.”

    In July 2017, Fazle Hossain Badsha, a Workers Party lawmaker from Rajshahi-2, sent a proposal to the Indian government through the office of Assistant High Commissioner of India in Rajshahi.

    In a meeting with the railways minister in October last year, Riva Ganguly Das, Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, raised the issue, a railway official said.

    The meeting also decided to carry out a feasibility study on the route, he added.

    Sujan said the construction work of seven km broad gauge line between Chilahati and Chilahati border is expected to be done by June this year. A new passenger train route can be opened from Dhaka to Siliguri through Chilahati-Haldibari border, he said.

    “We have expressed our interest in this regard and the Indian high commissioner also did the same in a meeting recently.

    “We are considering to start discussion soon about whether Bangladesh-India connectivity can be established through these two passenger train routes,” he opined.

    Railways Ministry Senior Secretary Mofazzel Hossain told The Daily Star that feasibility and traffic demand studies would be carried out if the two countries agreed to operate passenger trains on the routes.

    MORE TRIPS

    Currently, Maitree Express operates on Saturdays, Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. The train service will also be available on Tuesdays from February 11, Sujan said.

    On the other hand, Bandhan Express will operate on Sundays, in addition to Thursdays from February 16, he said.

    In a meeting between Sujan and Indian Railway Minister Piyush Goyal on August 6 last year, the ministers agreed to increase the number of trips of the trains, railway sources said.

    As per the decision, Maitree Express was supposed to run six days a week and Bandhan Express three days a week.

    Asked about the matter, Md Shamsuzzaman, director general of Bangladesh Railway, said the Indian Railways authorities could not manage slots for Maitree Express running six days a week.

    Besides, Bandhan Express cannot run for three days a week due to shortage of carriages, he said, “We will increase the trips in the near future.”

    The operation of Dhaka-Kolkata train service resumed on April 14, 2008, ending the 43-year pause, as two passenger trains named Maitree Express started simultaneously from Dhaka and Kolkata.

    Bandhan Express was launched on the Khulna-Kolkata route on November 16, 2017.

  12. Samsung Galaxy Note10+ now made in Bangladesh

    The flagship device now cheaper for local assembly

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    South Korean tech giant Samsung recently made Bangladesh swell with pride after it started manufacturing its flagship smart device Galaxy Note10+ in its local plant, in a testament of the massive technological advancement of the country’s mobile device assembling industry.

    The Note10+ has been designed like a computer, a gaming console and a movie-tech camera, and comes with an intelligent pen.

    “No doubt this is the most sophisticated handset produced in the country,” said Mohammad Mesbah Uddin, chief marketing officer of Fair Electronics, Samsung’s local assembly partner.

    The first batch of locally assembled Note10+ from Fair Electronics’ 58,000 square feet state-of-the-art manufacturing plant in Narsingdi was delivered to the market in the first week of January.

    Thanks to local assembly, the flagship Samsung device became Tk 31,300 cheaper: it is now selling at Tk 113,000.

    All 1,500 units in the first batch has already been sold out.

    “We received tremendous response from the market,” said Uddin, who is also the joint secretary of the Bangladesh Mobile Phone Importers Association.

    And the overwhelming response has convinced Fair Electronics to assemble the Note10 Lite, another top-notch handset.

    Fair Electronics, which started assembling Samsung handsets last year, has so far churned out 20 lakh units of 4G-enabled smartphones.

    Some 25 Samsung models of Samsung handsets have been assembled at the plant.

    “We will now move to assembling more sophisticated handset models. Gradually, all the high-end models will be manufactured in our plant.”

    The incredulous development is courtesy of a policy swerve in fiscal 2017-18: a good number of licences were offered for mobile assembly plants. Nine have sprung up so far.

    Fair Electronics is now assembling about 97 per cent of all Samsung devices sold in Bangladesh and expects to suspend importing after March as its local plant is capable of meeting the domestic demand entirely.

    This year, the company is aiming to assemble 25 lakh units of smartphones.

    The company is now adding about 35 per cent value to its products, and within the next few years the value addition will go up to 45 per cent as it plans to set up a PCBA motherboard manufacturing system.

    The quality of the locally made devices is, in some cases, better than that of the imported ones, said Muyeedur Rahman, head of mobile at Samsung Mobile Bangladesh.

    “The quality has improved significantly. Which is why we are offering 120 days of replacement warranty for the devices,” he added.

    Samsung is now taking preparation to manufacture tablets locally.

    Fair Electronics is also manufacturing several models of Samsung home appliances such as refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens and televisions in different units on the Narsingdi plant premises. A unit to manufacture washing machines is on the way, too. 

  13. Bangladesh revises air service deal with Japan

    Flight frequency raised, restrictions dropped

    Bangladesh has revised its air service agreement with Japan increasing the weekly flight frequency from two to seven and dropping the third-country restriction on the Dhaka–Tokyo route.

    Civil aviation and tourism ministry officials on Monday further told New Age that the Bangladeshi aircraft would also get the scope to operate codeshare flights on the route.

    A Bangladesh delegation, led by Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh chairman Air Vice-Marshal M Mafidur Rahman, visited Japan on January 29 and 30 for the revision of the deal.

    The CAAB officials said that a codeshare flight was marketed by one carrier and operated by another.

    Codeshare flights are based on agreements between airlines on selling seats on each other’s flights in order to provide passengers with a wider choice of destinations, they added.

    The CAAB chairman told New Age that the previous deal had allowed them to operate only two flights a week , which would now be seven a week from each of the countries.

    ‘In the past, Thailand was the mandatory stopover for us but now we can have the stopover in any country as we need,’ said the CAAB chief.

    National flag carrier Biman Bangladesh Airlines managing director and chief executive officer Md Mokabbir Hossain said that as the air service agreement was revised the Biman was planning to operate three flights a week on the Dhaka–Tokyo route in the near future.

    ‘We will operate one flight via Thailand and will also fly directly to Japan,’ said the Biman boss. 

    The Biman suspended its service on the Dhaka–Tokyo route in 2006, deeming it not commercially viable.

    Now given the enhanced business ties and higher tourist movement between the two countries, the airlines decided to resume its flights on the route, officials said earlier.

    The decision came at a time when the two countries saw a rapid rise in their bilateral trade, which is expected to further go up when Japan opens up its labour market to Bangladeshi workers in the future.

    Under the previous Bangladesh-Japan air service agreement, the Biman could operate only two flights to and from Japan a week via Bangkok and could drop or take only 30 per cent of the passengers in the middle destination.

    On July 30 last year, Bangladesh foreign minister AK Abdul Momen and his Japanese counterpart Taro Kono in Dhaka discussed the issue of revising the agreement during a bilateral meeting.

    According to media reports, there are now more than 270 Japanese companies operating in Bangladesh, 50 per cent higher compared to five years ago.

    Bangladesh’s export earnings from Japan too saw an 11.73 per cent increase to $1.13 billion in the FY18, according to Export Promotion Bureau data.

    Currently Bangladesh has air service agreements with 53 countries and 17 of them are in operation.

  14. 22 hours ago, Darth Nihilus said:

    Although I am all for the expansion of the highways, it won't be as effective if bottle-necking issues aren't solved. Having a wider road just means more vehicles piling up faster at the signals and bottle-necking points. A lot of it is attributed to illegal parking and not following the rules properly. Sadly, only solution to that is the Police being more diligent and we all know how that goes.

    Recent highway expansion designs seems to have addressed the issue. At each intersection flyovers are being constructed. Overpass and underpass are constructed at each exit and entry points. Overpass is being constructed at each local markets(haat-bazars). Separate lanes are there for slow moving vehicles.

  15. On 1/27/2020 at 11:51 AM, Xuhayr said:

    So far only the Site Selection news is known, It is supposed to be  on immediate vicinity of the Padma River in a project of BDT500 billion (USD6.4 billion). Supposed to be completed by 2026

    No possibility of the project being completed by 2026. The site selection is not done yet. As of now, the future of the project seems dark. Some updates here: Longer wait for a new international airport

  16. 46 minutes ago, rasay said:

    Actually it’s gonna be a total of 20 million. The new terminal will have a capacity of handling 12 million by the end of all development phases.

    Sorry, I misunderstood. 20 million by 2030 may not be adequate. If the government somehow manage to construct the proposed Bangabandhu airport then the that might solve the problem. But the project seems to be in the dark now.

  17. 10 hours ago, Darth Nihilus said:

    private hospitals charge exorbitant rates

    The hospitals in India or Singapore do not charge any less. But the main problem is the quality of service people get in this country and the mindset of the people. Some people would accept the same treatment in Chennai or Singapore than in Bangladesh.

  18. 8 hours ago, rasay said:

    Considered that too in my comment. There was actually an article where they mentioned this. Will post the link if I find it again.

    So, by 2030 airport will have an annual passenger handling capacity of at least 20+8=28 million. With current handling of around 10 million passengers annually, I do not think it will be more than three times by next 10 years.

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